News On 10
01
Global Trade & Commerce Report
A comprehensive snapshot of current trends, tensions, and economic implications around the world
🌍 1. U.S. Tariffs & Global Tensions
- President Trump announced unilateral tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on nations without finalized trade deals, starting August 1, 2025, with notifications to begin by July 9 .
- The EU is racing to finalize a deal before the deadline to maintain the current 10% tariffs on most goods.
- Additional high-risk targets include Cambodia, Laos, and Madagascar, as part of a categorization of trading partners.
⚠️ 2. Impact on Global Economy
- Global markets stumbled: S&P 500 futures dropped 0.6%, with copper and oil futures down over 1%.
- Economic growth risks increased. BIS warns of potential global bond-market panic amid rising tariffs and economic fragmentation.
📊 3. WTO & Worldwide Trade Data
- WTO reports show tariffs now cover 19.4% of global merchandise imports, compared to only 12.5% in late 2024 — the highest level since 2009.
- Mid-year outlook downgraded: global merchandise trade is expected to shrink 0.2% in 2025, with services trade growth slowing to 4.0%.
- In a more pessimistic scenario, global trade could fall by 1.5%, potentially dragging down world GDP by the same margin.
🏗️ 4. Trade Shifts & Supply Chains
- US–Vietnam deal targets transshipment loopholes: applies 20% tariffs to Vietnamese goods and 40% on suspected rerouted Chinese goods.
- China, Japan, and EU are under mounting pressure to strike deals ahead of July 9 — but high-margin agreements are limited.
- Trade is re-aligning away from China toward Vietnam, Mexico, and others as countries diversify supply chains.
📉 5. Growth & Forecast Concerns
- World Bank cut 2025 global GDP forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, noting trade tensions and weaker growth.
- UNCTAD warns that policy uncertainty may slow global growth below 2.5%, with impacts on investment, shipping, and logistics.
🔍 6. Sectoral Highlights
- Global factory activity mixed: North America heavily hit, but Asia showing modest resilience (China PMI ~50.4; India factory hiring at 14‑month high).
- Ocean freight remains sizeable: $2.2 trillion in trade through sea routes, with 60% in services.
- Businesses are stockpiling and adjusting logistics in anticipation of tariffs.
🧭 Outlook & Next Steps
- Negotiation deadline July 9 is pivotal. Any failure may trigger widespread tariff escalation.
- Anticipate policy-driven price volatility in commodities, autos, electronics.
- Supply chain strategies will dominate boardroom agendas — stockpiling, “friend-shoring”, and regional production are gaining priority.